New Cycle 24 Sunspot Group For...

[VK3PA]

Looking at the latest SOHO MDI magnetogram at
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... atest.html and
the SOHO EIT 304 image at
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... atest.html it
appears that a Plage has formed at approximately S28 W30.

It has a magnetic polarity and latitude consistent with solar cycle 24
activity. Often times a Plage is a forerunner of a developing sunspot group.
If a sunspot group does form it will be a solar cycle 24 group with number
#10987.

[VK2ZRH]

A plage?

Oh, that's just beachy!



Posted in the interests of pure amusement.

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK4GHZ]

Plage?

Why am i thinking of Monty Python's The Holy Grail?



"Bring out your dead"

[VK2ZRH]

Oh, what have I started with this play on words?

Plage (pron. plah-jj):

(1) Danish, noun - a nuisance, a pest.

(2) French, noun - a beach. (Trust the French to be contrary )

(3) Astronomy, adjective - bright region in the chromosphere of the Sun.

(4) Mycology, adjective - a clear, unornamented area on the basal area of an ornamented fungal spore.

Then there's plague (pron. play-g):

(1) English, noun - an epidemic of high mortality, a pestilence.

From Latin root - a blow or wound, akin to the Greek plege - stroke.

So, Adam. I lead with the French and you come back with a Danish!

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH
PS: I admit to being led astray by my Electrical Engineering lecturer at RMIT, who believed everyone should have a classical education, as he had (read: was forced to). Hence, in lieu of "black box" problems to solve, he gave us "le boite noir"!

[VK6KXW]

[KN4LF Propagation] Solar Cycle 23
Submitted for comment.
Robust debate is solicited.
VK6KXW
…………………………………………………………………………………………

I'm in the later and smaller camp. Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards a smaller and later peak for solar cycle 24.

In 2007 I predicted a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed sunspot number of 105 in October 2012 and stand by that forecast. If correct solar cycle 24 will be smaller than the previous three and make for grim DXing on the higher HF bands and a cooling of the global climate.

Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards another Dalton Minimum. A Dalton Minimum is a miniature version of the infamous Maunder Minimum, where the number of sunspot groups drop to a below normal level and corresponding total energy output of the Sun also drops. This would bring on a mini mini ice age for a period of 30-50 years.
NOTE!!! A slow rise time in a solar cycle is indicative a relatively small maximum within the cycle, with a fast rise time indicative of a relatively large maximum within a solar cycle. As of March 24, 2008 we have seen only 8 sunspot groups since January 1st. Of those eight seven are solar cycle 23 sunspot groups.

On January 4, 2008 it was declared by the NOAA SWPC that solar cycle 24 had begun based on the first reversed polarity sunspot cycle group but that was just to end the suspense. We are not at that point yet. Therefore in my professional opinion we are still at the bottom of solar cycle 23. However from an improved propagation point of view there is no difference between the bottom of solar cycle 23 and the beginning of solar cycle 24.

Unfortunately there is no official definition as to when a new sunspot cycle begins. It is generally accepted that when the number of solar cycle 24 sunspot group numbers surpass the number of solar cycle 23 sunspot group numbers solar cycle 24 will be underway. This will probably not occur for a
few more months or so.

It's easier to look back and declare that a solar cycle is already underway then to predict when it will begin. As of this moment we still can't point to the month that the lowest smoothed sunspot number occurred, to be able to point to the arrival of the bottom of solar cycle 23, however October 2007 looks like a good candidate.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Lakeland, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

[VK4ABW]

This is what i have logged on 49mhz so far this year. The columns are Jan - Jun.

[vk3six]

[KN4LF Propagation] Solar Cycle 23
Submitted for comment.
Robust debate is solicited.
VK6KXW
…………………………………………………………………………………………

I'm in the later and smaller camp. Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards a smaller and later peak for solar cycle 24.

i]

u r so right





And the bad news is until 10M opens 6M will not open all rocket sience.

So watch the chart above and when you hear JA's on 10M you have half a chance.

[VK4EKA]

The lower the minimum and the longer the next cycle is establishing it self over the last of the Cycle 23 spots the lower will be the maximum Smoothed Sunspot Number for Cycle 24.
An interesting short show (powerpoint) was produced on one of the solar activity web sites with a brief explanation of the various methods different camps have used (and comment on their accuracy). I forget now which site it was on (a European one I think) but a Google search for "20090207Astrofest_SunspotCycle.ppt" should find it.
As the minimum drags out it looks like the lower predictions (maximum SSN for Cycle 24 of 75) will be right. Note these newer prediction techniques have error estimates of +/- 30, so the maximum SSN for Cycle 24 looks more and more likely to come out very low - towards 50.
Have a read and even make an estimate for yourself.
(I wonder what VK2ZRH estimated at GippsTech?

[vk3six]

(I wonder what VK2ZRH estimated at GippsTech?

I have absolutely no idea and it was probably all academic anyway.

Th science gurus and their compatriots have absolutely no idea.



2 cents

[VK2ZRH]

See: viewtopic.php?f=43&t=8645

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH
PS: A snapshot of what I said at GippsTech 2009.

[vk3six]

Nope on this scale from 72 in jan 2008 plus 5.5 years means we will get our 220 peak in 2013.5


The solar flux hit 82.3 on Tuesday,
the highest recording yet since the first observed "new cycle
sunspot" in January 2008, which was the "official" visual start of
Sunspot Cycle 24.



Just joing guys, go extrapolate

[VK2ZRH]

Hathaway is spot on (pun intended).

It remains to be seen if Livingston's speculation is fulfilled.

Somebody once said "Extrapolation is often like masturbation . . . nothing more than a pleasant self-delusion."

Then again, 17 years is but a blink in the history of solar cycles. But wait ! That solar science warrior of old, Samuel Schwabe, counted sunspots every clear day for 17 yrs from 1826, discovering a cyclic variation of about 10 years length. There must be some numerological significance here.

As I said elsewhere - we live in interesting times.

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK4GHZ]

Maybe the sun is being affected by Global Warming? !!!

[vk3six]

Well one thing is for sure the lack of dx has seen the focus on local dx.
And finally everyone has qsy'd off 110 to 200

OOOPS

BACK ON 110

BAND MUST BE OPEN again

[vk3six]

The solar flux hit 82.3 on Tuesday,
the highest recording yet since the first observed "new cycle
sunspot" in January 2008, which was the "official" visual start of Sunspot Cycle 24.


There ya go people, now get off the case and get on with your lives, such as they are...