View on Cycle 24 and future prospects

[YU7EF]

Head up Wayne, the real thrill is yet to come ...

My last and only VK's worked on 6m were VK4FNQ (QG39) and VK4CXQ (QH30) - both worked with a GP and 50W on March 3. 2002. around 9 AM

If you now take a look at solar cycle 23, you can notice that was well after cycle peak and VK9XI was worked in April 2004 also with GP and 50W
so we should expect good openings in about 2-3 years from now, particularly if predicted second maximum is at the end of this year ...

Fingers crossed and prepare BIG antennas so you don't miss that one

73, Pop, YU7EF

PS: In the meantime we can make it on EME ....

[ZL3ADT]

Mike

Will her indoors object to wireless in bedroom

[VK8GB]

Like our famous weather bureau there are many predictions about the future, that may or may not come true.

IPS don't expect a double peak. See here:

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

Also there is a prediction of not much happening over the next few cycles. See here:

http://www.home.earthlink.net/~christra ... 0-2100.pdf

Graham
VK8GB

[VK2ZRH]

Yes, Graham, but IPS qualify their "forecast" so:

IPS will adjust this forecast cycle as the new cycle unfolds. The difficulty is ensuring that adjustments are not made for short term variation, only for longer term cycle variation.

Let us not forget, also, that there's a difference between the terms "forecast" and "prediction"

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK2AVR]

Let us not forget, also, that there's a difference between the terms "forecast" and "prediction"

I've often said of weather forecasters that it's the only job you can get completely wrong 50% of the time and still be employed.

Back on topic, if this is the peak then I have well and truly missed the boat.. if the best is coming in another year or two I might actually get some antennas up by then and operate (living in a unit has its challenges, and being very busy limits ones time for radio!).

[VK2ZRH]

Go for it Geoff !

Mind you, we now know that long-haul 6m DX doesn't depend on the solar cycle

The same could be said for 10m, except that operators only pay attention during solar maximum years

During solar minimum years, 160m and 80m come into their own for DX; and we're yet to learn how the new 600m band is affected by the solar cycle - although some "predicting" could be done

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK2ZRH]

Graham VK8GB: your post reminded me of a research paper I presented at the 1979 Future Amateur Communications Techniques Symposium (held in Sydney) on Investigations of long-distance VHF/UHF amateur contacts across the geomagnetic equator.

This was the era when 144 MHz TEP was a hot topic, and there was speculation in the amateur and other technical literature about the nature of the propagation.

I took reports of 2m contacts with JA by yourself and Brian VK8VV, from Eric Jamieson VK5LP's (SK) VHF-UHF An Expanding World column in AR magazine, and did an analysis that demonstrated it was evening-type transequatorial propagation. The salient detail and accuracy of your reporting at the time was outstanding The scientific community involved in ionospheric physics also used those reports from AR magazine.

For your edification (and for others), a PDF of the paper is attached.

TEP_FACT79_Harrison.pdf

(1.9 MiB) Downloaded 304 times

IIRC, the smoothed sunspot number during the period of the contacts over 1978 was around 70

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK8GB]

Roger VK2ZRH.

Thanks for the link to your paper. The only reason I got interested in 2m TEP so many years ago, was that I read the series of articles written you about TEP in the 70's I think - where you thought that it would be possible - you were the inspiration that got me going! Thanks.

I now do part time work as a Frequency Manager for an overseas shortwave broadcaster and watch the solar cycle predictions fairly closely - it seems that no organization is particulaly accurate - our own IPS are probably the best.

Graham VK8GB

[VK2ZRH]

Hi Graham,

Thanks for that. The article of mine you mention was VHF Transequatorial Propagation, published in the April and May 1972 issues of AR magazine . . . and subsequently in VHF Communications and ETI in 1973. You must have read it somewhere there!

It took 5-6 years for my conjecture on 144 MHz TEP to be realised

The thing is, we know that TEP has also happened on 432 MHz (Africa-EU, one way), and I know that Darwin area is a good geomagnetic match to JA-4-5-6, but has anyone tried it ?

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK3HJ]

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

This is one of my favourite quotations, and is attributed to Nobel laureate in Physics, Nils Bohr.

Whilst I've managed to achieve DXCC on all 8 HF bands this Cycle, I'd still like to have more fun on the higher HF bands before it finishes. My last DXCC I'm working on is for 160 m, one of those "unpredictable" bands. If I were a batsman, I'd be nervous, as I'm on 87 countries, with the century not far away! At least on this band, no sunspots can be an advantage, so there should be "plenty of time". I'll be especially careful around trams and buses!
This week, we've had a nice burst of good solar activity. It would be nice for this to repeat next month for the VK9NT Norfolk Island expedition.
There is some suggestion of a second peak next year, but who knows... One must just take it as it comes. Enjoy the current conditions, as the past couple of winters have been pretty quiet on the radio. Perhaps a good time to catch up with QSLs and complete some of those projects on the workbench or drawing board.
The only time for action is "now".
73,
Luke VK3HJ

[VK2ZRH]

Spot on, Luke

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH
I couldn't help myself

[VK4WDM]

I started using JT65 three months ago, an amazingly-effective weak signal mode. I can get contacts on 10 and 15m any time of day or night even when the bands appear "dead" and no phone or cw signals can be heard. What it is showing me is that the bands ARE open, but we need to use the most effective means of communication.

I have not tried JT65 on 6m, but I need to. Andrew VK3OER's radar work has shown that there are paths open to unexpected places that we need to exploit.

73

Wayne VK4WDM

[VK4BZ]

In my (brief) time on radio, I've seen a few cycles come and go, and you know what? There's always DX to be found somewhere, sometime irrespective of our place in the solar cycle. The cycle changes, but good operating practices and loads of patience don't. A modest station with an efficient radiator...and a well-oiled CW key...and you can work DX to your heart's content!

Personally, of late I have rediscovered DX on the low end of the 10m band - yes, sometimes at weird hours, but it's there!

As a fossilized old CW operator - you want DX, go back to the original digital mode and Madam DX will be waiting to embrace you and bestow her favours upon you!

[VK4WDM]

Yes, I agree that CW is an efficient mode, but not let's get fixated by it and perpetuate the myth that it is the only thing for "real dxers." Some people are never going to learn CW. Some like myself, let their skills slip and when they try to return to it later in life, the old ears and brain simply can't cope.

IMHO, digital modes such as JT65 are just as efficient as CW, perhaps more so, and there are apparently other modes in the pipeline that are even better than JT65 and other current modes.

There are of course some downsides. The major one for me is that most of the rare DX I need (DXCC now 223) is still on CW, so I have to do the best I can, and that includes using "hearing aids" such as the computer based decoding programs. None of these are as good as mark 1 ear but they do help.

So the question is: "what is the best combination of band, mode and skill that is needed to get the QSO in the log." Personally I will use anything just to make the QSO

73

Wayne VK4WDM

[VK4BZ]

"So the question is: "what is the best combination of band, mode and skill that is needed to get the QSO in the log." Personally I will use anything just to make the QSO"

Wayne, I agree the modern digital low signal modes are extremely effective - they just keep banging away until they find a path and get a signal - but I have to ask if that is as satisfying as "having" a QSO? I guess for some it would be, so go for broke and keep making the contacts.

With the CW thing - all you need to know is the call sign (a DX spotter page will tell you what the station is) and how to send your callsign and 599...along with "TKS, GL ES 73"! A very basic knowledge of CW or a pre-programmed message in your rig's memory will suffice.

Again, personally, I like to have a yarn, so greater competence on CW is required, but to work the DX pile-up, I reckon that's all you need.

(I am currently assuming the crouched position behind the HESCO wall with my body armour and helmet on...awaiting the incoming rounds after that suggestion!)

[VK4WDM]

John, I absolutely agree with you about the "souless" nature of JT65 and I would really like to have a yarn with some of the interesting stations I contact, but the same goes with a lot of the CW contacts I hear: "UR 599 (even if they are struggling to hear each other) TU, 73." Just as the art of conversation seems to be dying in general society, so is the "rag chew" in AR.

I am not saying that CW is dead, or has been superceded by other modes, I just did not want this thread to go down the path of "the only real AR is CW."

I have in other treads, made a very passionate plea that all hams should learn CW (and a lot of them are) and that those who already know it should keep their skills up.

There absolutely no doubt that if you want to get serious about DXCC then you need CW skills, if mine were up to the mark I could have worked three new countries this morning judging from spots on the logger. Im have never heard any of those countries on SSB or JT65.

Once the SS favours the low bands then CW is going to be vital. I am working on reviving my CW for that reason.

73

Wayne VK4WDM