View on Cycle 24 and future prospects

[VK2ZRH]

Astronomer at the US National Solar Observatory, Frank Hill, discusses Solar Cycle 24 and future prospects.

There will be another cycle (#25), but no new ice age, as has been suggested in the general media.

Get the skinny here: http://earthsky.org/space/frank-hill-se ... ew-ice-age

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK8MS]

GM Roger,
Thanks for posting link to this observation much appreciated your postings & research. The only dissapointemnt is i will be looking at some form of retirement in next ten years thought i may put more time into new 6mt Antennas etc.
We have been complaing about the current cycle not a lot to look forward to over next few cycles, of course we have alternative Bands to experiment with so I'm sure I will find avenues in the hobby of Amateur Radio to experiment with.
Thanks again.

Mark VK8MS.

[VK4WDM]

Thank you Roger - very interesting.

Mark, I agree it is not good news but we must not be fixated by the notion that long-haul 6m DX is solely dependant on high sunspot activity. Multi-hop Sporadic E being an example.

I agree with what Andrew VK3OE/VK3OER said in one of his articles that we have a very limited knowledge of propagation on 6m, and that there are certainly modes and pathways that have not yet been discovered and exploited. He has the radar evidence to back up that opinion about exotic paths.

So my suggestion is this. Instead of the 6m ops going into hibernation during the next 11, 22, or 44 years we should be increasing, not decreasing our efforts to get RF into the atmosphere This is a real chance for hams to once again contribute to the knowledge base of radio.

73

Wayne VK4WDM

[VK3HJ]

I hear lots of people moaning about what a dreadful solar cycle we are having. Most of them compare it with cycle 19, which was probably unusually high. I remember a bit of cycle 21, and worked some DX without really trying, and it was a "good" one.
When I got back on air in late 2006, cycle 23 was finishing, but I didn't seriously start to work the DX until right at the bottom of the cycle. Since then I've managed 8 bands DXCC with a fairly modest station, with just a Hex Beam and some wires. So as far as I'm concerned, the DX is there for the working, but you do have to work for it! In the first 10.5 days of January, between work and sleeping, my little station worked 100 countries, mostly on the higher bands - 15m has been consistently good for some time now. The 6m band has given me little reason to spend time on it, as HF has been far more interesting for a DXer.
Now I'm sort of keen for this cycle to wind down so I can complete my Top Band DXCC, but not too keen, as the higher HF bands have been a lot of fun!
Most of the people posting regularly on this forum, I have never heard on air. So, instead of sadly missing the glories of big solar cycles of the past, get on air and enjoy what's on offer right now. You won't experience it if you go to bed early, however!
73 es gud DX,
Luke VK3HJ

[VK3YE]

Most of the people posting regularly on this forum, I have never heard on air. So, instead of sadly missing the glories of big solar cycles of the past, get on air and enjoy what's on offer right now.

Couldn't agree more.

Received some good reports from the US with 5 watts to a half wave vertical on 20m SSB in the last few days.

As for 10 metres, the below is what can be done pedestrian mobile with a 40cm diameter magnetic loop.

Doesn't happen every day but gotta be in it to win it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QIEvz8WOsI

[VK3GDM]

I agree with HJ.

Although I haven't been on air much this January (still in holiday mode), I've recently (prior to xmas) been having a ball on 40m in the early mornings between 6:00 and 7:00am EST.
Working stations all across EU with 100w and a dipole at 8meters.
Sometimes I feel like I'm the only VK station on and have been able to generate quite good little pile ups.
The last time on air I worked 21 stations in about 30mins. Great fun!

I agree, that people who seem to complain about bad conditions are either not turning the radio on, or are on at the wrong times.

Perhaps those who are working some DX at regular time slots could broadcast it (times & freqs) here for others.

73
David VK3GDM

[VK2XQ]

Things may be bad on 50MHz but it's the opposite for me on 30, 40m and 18m CW, as Luke VK3HJ correctly states, you have to be on air and at the right times to reap the benefits. I am on air most mornings from 0400hrs local on 30 and 40M CW and have had outstanding results running just 0.5 watts QRP CW.

Have worked a swag of Africa, Middle East and Indian Ocean stations on both bands, and have missed a lot of them too as many cannot be bothered listening for weaker signals.

Europe, Asia and Oceania are very consistant but I tend to look for rarer countries to the west. Just the other week I was on what appeared to be a dead 30m CW at 0345hrs EDST but decided to place a quick CQDX out and was rewarded with a good contact with Sri Lanka and then Zimbabwe followed by Angola, all on 0.5watts QRP too.

Don't bother checking loggers and clusters all the time, place a call out instead and you may be surprised what comes back to you.

Put no effort in and you can expect no gain...

Jack D. Haden VK2XQ (QF-56ne) Sydney NSW

[VK4WDM]

It has not been the best of cycles so far for 6m, although I do wonder how much DX has been missed due to the current operating habits on the band. I am still hopeful for something to occur in Feb-April and Sep-Oct but I don't think it will be like the last cycle, more likely to be weak and fleeting like in cycles of old, hence the need for vigilance and QRM-free space for weak-signal work.

Other than 6m, the cycle has been good to me. 20, 15, 12, & 10m have loads of signals but the good openings have not always been at the expected times, especially on 10m. One of my new countries was worked on 12m - a band that I seldom visit.

I have worked four new countries in the last six months, not many, but they do get harder to find when you have 215 confirmed. The major limitation for not doing much better is my poor cw skills - 30 more new countries would have been available on that mode, especially on 30m, judging by what has been reported on the logger. The situation has not been helped by a poor antenna system - loaded dipole, no beam.

I have been on the air for several cycles now and it is frustrating when a lot of ops just go in to hibernation when the SS drops and my view, the major bar to activity is not the cycle itself, it's lack of available ops - just see what happens when one of the major contests comes along or a rare entity is activated, they come out of their caves in droves!

Once the cycle wanes the lower bands are going to come to the fore. 160 and 80m are not much good up here in the tropics because of the short twilight and high atmospheric noise, so I need to focus on 40m and 30m. This means better antennas (?loop), and very importantly working on my CW skills. I also need to increase my digital mode operations - some rare stuff pops up on PSK, RTTY, and especially JT65.

40m is a band that I find very frustrating as there are a lot of ops on it, especially from Europe, that can't hear, or don't appear to try and hear weak signals (I am talking about SSB). They are obviously running big power into big antennas but don't suck as well as they blow. There are contrasts though. A few months ago I being ignored by the "big boys" when a weak GW station called me. He was running 100w to a wire antenna just like me. We persisted for about 20 mins before reports were exchanged. I was his first VK on 40m and he was my first G on 40m - can be done if you work on it.

I also think we have lot the art of a good old CQ call. We check loggers and such for signs of activity but nothing beats some RF into the atmosphere - nothing happens if ops at both ends are silent. My best ever DX on 6m (long-path LU) was from a CQ on an apparently "dead" band.

So my plea to all ops is: "don't hibernate" there are contacts to be had, but you have to work a bit harder, and please call! And very importantly, learn CW, or if you do know it now, don't let your skills slip or else you will have a sorry tale to tell just like me.

73

Wayne VK4WDM

[VK3MEG]

well I got my upgrade in June last year I've got around 77 countries in the log with my small simple station over 40 confirmed. I haven't sent a qsl card yet. The dx is definitely out there it wont appear when ever you switch on the radio you need to chase it. I had no idea how to find it at first but relearned how to. I worked alot of dx on 11m 30-40 years ago. i had good success in winter as well yeah I have the radio going n the background when I'm on the computer just in case how else could I have worked India on 10m at 3 in the morning yes I call cq often my kids can recite it like a prayer. it just depends on how much you want it
cheers




peter vk3ye can testify I call cq he has answered me a few times

[VK4WDM]

I've got around 77 countries in the log

Good work Steve!

73

Wayne VK4WDM

[VK3MEG]

funny thing was 10m appeared dead today the darwin beacon was coming in loud and strong so I called for about 5 10 mins and guess what 2 ja's answered 1 5 x7 the other 5x9+.
if you dont call you dont recieve

[VK3HJ]

It's a Bad Day when there's no Japanese on the bands to talk to!
Just as an empirical comparison between the start of 2012 and 2013: it took me about 5 1/2 weeks to work my first 100 countries last year. This year, 10 1/2 days to work 100! And still lots of "easy" ones out there I haven't caught yet. It's almost shocking how easily the DX flows now. Bear in mind also, that I started back at work on the 2nd, so I'm not on 24/7.
My best times are around sunset on the greyline bands, and around midnight on the higher bands. 15m has been the best for DX for about the past 12 months. 12m has been very nice, well into the evening, closing around midnight, but some Long Path Caribbean and Central America even after midnight.
My impression is that this year has started off much, much better for DX than the last several years.
Get on air and enjoy it while it lasts.
73,
Luke VK3HJ

[VK3YE]

Perhaps those who are working some DX at regular time slots could broadcast it (times & freqs) here for others.

20 metres in the mornings 8 - 10am local has been good for North Americans.

[VK3YE]

if you dont call you dont recieve

Too true.

Apart from calling CQ another approach (usually more successful with QRP) is to tune across, listening briefly to each contact. Listen long enough to get a sense of what the contact is about.

There's two types of contact to note (ie recall callsigns and frequencies).

There's the very short DX contact or the longer ragchew that's coming to a close.

The former is useful as you know the contact will end soon and you'll get a chance to put in a call.

The latter is also useful as there's the chance to call one of the stations and get a contact.

As you tune across the band pay special attention to the frequencies you've noted to see if there's a way in.

Other DX stations have a big crowd waiting to call or are most often chatting to a small coterie. Then there's those who call CQ with only a minimal pause between calls before resuming (can't be seeking genuine weak DX).

None of these are useful for our purposes of working them so tune elsewhere to find signals with better prospects.

Eg those tuning up, testing or who're issuing their first or second CQ and haven't been found by the multitudes yet.

Competition is your enemy - so you want to be calling at a time when the others aren't, but the station you wish to work is.

[VK2SWL1]

I have been monitoring since solar cycle 21. Cycles 21, 22, and 23 were all highly productive from a low VHF DX perspective. The current cycle 24 is the least productive, and is significantly down on cycles 21-23. This is based on observations at ~ 33 degrees S (i.e. similar latitude to Perth and Sydney).

Despite the sub-par conditions, it is instructive to note that simply moving ~ 1600 km closer to the geomagnetic equator (e.g. Broome north of Perth), the F2, aTEP, and eTEP MUFs are significantly higher at Broome. An average evening at Broome, with ~ 90 MHz eTEP MUFs, and ~ 50 MHz late afternoon F2/2F2, to certain areas of the world (e.g. Asia or Middle East), greatly surpasses even the best evenings at Perth or Sydney during the considerably more productive solar cycles 21-23. One exception is the multi-F2 openings, but even they are more productive at locations such as Broome.

So the corollary is that the combination of more optimal locations (e.g. geographic space closer to the geomagnetic equator) and time (e.g. around the equinox) is often more productive than listening at more pedestrian locations (e.g. Sydney and Perth) and relying on high 10.7cm flux values. Even a ~ 100 SFI is sufficient during the current equinox to propagate 90 MHz eTEP from BY/VR2 into Broome.

So as they say in the real estate business, location, location.

Todd

[VK2ZRH]

Greater sustained solar flux expands the ionosphere,which in turn expands the equatorial anomaly (see: http://home.iprimus.com.au/toddemslie/aTEP-Harrison.htm) and thus the distances and MUFs of transequatorial propagation paths (see: Ibid and http://home.iprimus.com.au/toddemslie/eTEP-Harrison.htm).

Simple geometry, really

Latest news is that Cycle 24 will be double-humped (as has every cycle since #20), and the biggest hump is yet to come

SC24_image_mini.jpg (26.42 KiB) Viewed 9158 times

See: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/sc ... twinpeaks/

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK4WDM]

I will be a bit humped off if they are wrong!

73

Wayne VK4WDM

[ZL3MF]

I will be a bit humped off if they are wrong!

73

Wayne VK4WDM

Speaking of cycles and humping maybe we all should go back to the bedroom

[VK4WDM]

What! and miss the DX! Outrageous suggestion.

Wayne VK4WDM

[VK4ABW]

Don't you just love the maths ! There are so many ways to crunch numbers that you will get the result you want

Lets roll the dice and get a more accurate picture

Gary