Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Non band-specific propagation & Solar Cycle discussion
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VK6DVR
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Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK6DVR »

SOLAR CYCLE #24 IS CRASHING: Sourced from SpaceWeather.com of 27-Mar-2016

Is anyone wondering, why has the sun been so quiet lately?
Answer: The 11-year sunspot cycle is crashing.

(VK6DVR: Doh, don't we all know it!
We'll all be using 'Zimmer frames' by the time Cycle-25 comes around!).


Just look at the numbers in the graph below:
Image

For the past two years, the sunspot number has been dropping as the sun transitions from Solar Max to Solar Min. Fewer sunspots means fewer solar flares and fewer coronal mass ejections (CMEs). As these explosions subside, we deem the sun "quiet."

But how quiet is it, really?

A widely-held misconception is that space weather stalls and becomes uninteresting during periods of low sunspot number. In fact, by turning the solar cycle sideways, we see that Solar Minimum brings many interesting changes.

Lika_sideways_SC.pdf
https://www.vsp.ucar.edu/Heliophysics/p ... ays_SC.pdf

For instance, the upper atmosphere of Earth collapses, allowing space junk to accumulate around our planet. The heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. And galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge is already underway.
http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-ray ... intensify/

(Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation.)
Stay tuned to SpaceWeather.com http://spaceweather.com/ for updates as the sunspot number continues to drop.

VK6DVR: Hey, fellow VHF HAMmers, all is not lost, do not despair too much.

A downward sunspot-cycle should inspire VHF Radio Amateurs (particularly those 6M 'Magic-band' tragics), to experiment more and explore the limits of propagation more intensely than just relying on the ionosphere jiggling those electrons hotter during cycle peaks.

Some topics to inspire you to not abandon our hobby, (just yet):

* Equinoctial TEP will still be available during cycle lows, albeit fewer, shorter openings, probably digi-modes only. For those dudes averse to computers, get a mate to set it up for you, then put yourself on WSPR for starters, then graduate to other QSO-type digi-modes once you've had some experience. You'll be surprised how easy it is at the end of the day.

* If you're not already using one, build a masthead combo LNA (Low-Noise Amplifier) with a bypass relay of ~70-80dB contacts isolation, and use low-loss coax runs, so those WSPR and JT65 decodes and EME signals improve.

* Experiment more with antenna technologies - if you haven't got the antenna, you haven't got the weak signals. But, it doesn't have to be the biggest, just fit-for-purpose.

* Meteor-Scatter: Many of you on the Eastern AU seaboard have perfect separation distances to play with MS comms. How about some software and use the internet to determine Meteor Shower quadrants recorded live from a triangulation of stations, so that those fewer, but 'larger' bolides trajectories can be passed onto those planetary scientists. Just a few each decade.

* Follow the 'Hepburn Charts' and pickup some interesting Tropospheric Propagation paths.

* Yes, it's fine having a rotatable 5-el, 6-M LFA yagi, pointing in your preferred direction, but unless you have a stacked horizontally-polarized omnidirectional running, you may miss out on hearing sigs/beacons in the yagi nulls.

I proved that nicely during last 2015 Xmas-Eve's Es opening, where, while up in NW-WA up in Broome, from a very meagre omni-antenna made by crossing 2x full-wave loops and then cable-tied to a pool-fence at 2M high, I managed a triple-kangaroo-hop WSPR report all the way to Dunedin at the bottom of NZ's Sth island.

With WSPR running almost 24x7, and without having to go out into any Broome heat and 'Armstrong' any yagis, sigs from the lower SW of WA (normally off a yagi null) gave me reports with signal strengths far greater than expected from such an antenna. Satisfaction guaranteed, for building this antenna, testing it with my SARK-110 Antenna Analyzer, leaving it exactly where it was setup for vSWR testing and then persevering with it for the duration of the Es season, simply to prove it can be fun, no matter how poor you might have felt that it would have worked.

Chin up boyz and girlz!
Last edited by VK6DVR on Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Danny Robinson, VK6DVR
VK5TM

Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK5TM »

Thankyou Danny for a most enjoyable post.
VK4WDM

Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK4WDM »

I have experienced a number of sun spot minima and they can be just as exciting on the low bands as ss maxima can be on the higher bands.

On 40m I have worked Europe until late morning, Africa from mid-afternoon, the Americas from late afternoon and Asia all day and all night with 100w and a G5RV. World wide contacts on 160m and 80m are a common occurrence especially on CW, and don't forget the new 700m band!.

My suggestions for the time ahead are:

1. Put up the best LF antenna you can. If I had the space it would be a 160m or 80m horizontal loop fed with open wire line.

2. Get CW capability. If you can handle the traditional method then go to computerized CW using a program such as MRP40 or CW skimmer. Ignore the screams of the purists saying "that is not real CW" they said the same when we went from straight to bug keys.

3. Get into digital modes. I can't wait to see what they will do, especially on 30m. My guess is that they will also allow contacts on the higher bands long after they are impossible with CW and phone.

4. A "noise cancelling device" such as the Timewave ANC-4 or similar MFJ products can make a big difference in this QRN infected world.

73

Wayne VK4WDM
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK3HJ »

I have been active through this cycle on Low Bands, and look forward to great conditions like we had in 2007,8 and 9.

I might even take down the 6 m beam and put up my 2 m beam again.
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK3OE »

Hi Danny,

A most interesting post.

BUT,,, all is not lost, you have overlooked a very exciting 6m propagation mode, that of nEs.

This mode provides openings to the Pacific and Central America during every summer solstice. There is also the possibility of nEs to Europe during our winter solstice, a good possibility for VK6.

Roger Harrison has published a series of articles in DUBUS on this mode, the final article appearing in DUBUS edition 1/2016.

73.
Andrew
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK2ZRH »

Hi Danny,

Andrew said what I was going to point out ! :D

It turns out that the majority of long-haul 6m propagation is via multi-hop Es (nEs), even between the hemispheres. And, better yet, its occurrence doesn't appear to follow the solar cycle. :clap:

Don't take down your 6m beams !
73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK4WDM »

It turns out that the majority of long-haul 6m propagation is via multi-hop Es (nEs), even between the hemispheres. And, better yet, its occurrence doesn't appear to follow the solar cycle.
Hi Roger

I know that you hold to that theory but it does not pan out in practice. I have been active in several cycles with a reasonably capable 6m station and my experience is that there are always hundreds of contacts outside the TEP zone when the SS numbers have been high and almost none when the numbers are low and I am sure most other DXers would agree.

Having said that, I agree that we should not give up. Well setup stations with skillful operators using the most efficient modes will still make contacts during the low part of the cycle.

73

Wayne VK4WDM
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK4ABW »

I used to think that 103 was the magic sunspot number to work EU on six.....wrong.
Worked a lot of EU and also Sth America last year and the sunspot numbers were no where near that.

Keep experimenting guys...after all, it's only science :om:
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK3MEG »

hey I'm a newbie in this game but a pretty serious 10m operator andoverall dx'er. There have still been openings when the numbers arent great a few weeks ago i got an opening to eu on 10m and worked 75 station with 100 watts and 4 elements from vk3. as Wayne said the low bands are where the action is i would never have believed i would have dxcc worked on 40m already with wire antenna's and 100w. cw gave me that working places like market reef on 40m or finland is pretty exciting 80m will be harder but not impossible. I find jt65 boring but alot of people are have great results with it. btw Roger your article was really interesting i won a years subscription to DUBUS i think from Doug vk3um from the Rosebud hamfest that opened up my eyes took me 6 months to pick it up but when i did very interesting reading.
I treat 10m like 6m cause i cant play with the big boys on 6m its a good substitute
cheers
cheers
Steve now known as vk3ktt
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK2ZRH »

Hi Wayne,

The collective radio amateur observations / reports of long-haul 6m contacts across the globe over more than a decade - a considerable database - strongly point to long-haul 6m propagation being via nEs in the majority of cases. Recent research into observations over 1.5 solar cycles of Es occultation of UHF satellite signals support the terrestrial observation by 6m amateur contacts.

Two key things will influence what an individual operator (at a fixed location) will experience: the availability of propagation paths from that location to other locations (formation of Es at particular times and places, the actual 6m amateur population and geographic spread of their locations, and operators being on-air when a path opens) and the 'operator effect' (a cohort of 6m operators give up on 6m and do something else, often because the solar cycle is not to their 'liking'). :shock:

Sporadic E ionisation is a "stranger" in the ionosphere, because it comprises long-lived metallic ions swept into thin sheets by the 'weather' of wind-shear in the neutral atmosphere at Es heights (90-150 km); the ionosphere is only partly, or weakly, ionised - it is mostly neutral gas molecules. The metallic ions (chiefly iron, Fe, and magnesium, Mg) come from the detritus of meteors, the 'dust' molecules are ionised mostly by charge exchange with gaseous ions (O, N and NO), and some solar radiation on the sunward side of the Earth. As some 200+ tonnes of meteors - most being the size of sand grains - impact the Earth's atmosphere every day, there's a pretty consistent supply of dust molecules. The weather of wind-shears at Es heights is influenced by diurnal forces (the daily thermal tide brought about by solar heating of the atmosphere) and seasonal forces affecting the upper atmosphere at Es heights.

I have demonstrated that what may appear to be a solar cycle effect is actually a shift in the pattern of Es formation over time. :crazy:

I've set it all out in DUBUS over recent years, so there endeth the lesson for today. :wink:
73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK6DVR »

Hi Roger VK2ZRH, very illuminating and educational post, as per usual.
(And Andy VK3OE, I knew I'd leave something amiss and not covered it all - thanks for the nEs and keep the digi-modes going).

My 6M VHF-oriented post was devised to inspire individuals to maintain interest in 6M DX propagation, rather than thinking that a declining cycle could induce complacency, by not fully understanding the complexities. I think I achieved that by getting a great thread going again, in this time of declining activity.

Does this also mean we don't really have to wait until equinoctial TEP coming up either side of Sep-22, but we could indeed potentially see some nEs (albeit lower strengths) during our Winter months either side of June-20?

In terms of beginning the watch, would it be equal number of days before (and how many?) and after winter solstice, or more days of nEs following that date?

Kerry and I hope to get back to the B&B in Broome again, but it probably won't be until November through March, 2017. but this time with a 5-el 6M lightweight yagi instead of the 2x full-wave crossed loops hangin' off the poolside fence. If that comes off, then we'll definitely be looking to multihop nEs to Europe.

My last stint up at Broome, saw this poolside antenna get me triple-hops of Es from Broome to Dunedin, but that was a meagre antenna just tried out to see how well it could really work - great FUN!
Danny Robinson, VK6DVR
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Re: Solar Cycle #24 is (Doh) Crashing

Post by VK2AVR »

Thanks Danny, that was a great read.

Recently at MWRS we were playing around with a wideband active loop antenna (1m diameter aluminium loop) and pulled in a WSPR signal from Belgium. The active loop was INDOORS about 2 metres above the ground and the Belgium station's report said they were using 1 watt.

1 watt!! From the other side of the world to an undersized antenna indoors next to fluorescent lights and other sources of noise.

Amazing things are possible for those who want to chase it, and it's not hard. If you hang up your mic/keyer because of a declining sunspot number I would think that you've lost the sense of adventure this hobby is supposed to inspire.
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